Consolidation, Overcapacity and the New Shape of European Packaging Leadership

For many organisations, the pressure is not only financial or operational, but also talent-led. As businesses review assets, simplify structures and reposition portfolios, they must also consider which leaders and critical teams are needed to deliver change. 

Demand remains supported by long-term trends such as e-commerce, fibre-based formats and sustainability regulation, but the operating environment has become more challenging. Subdued volumes, margin pressure and excess capacity are forcing companies to reconsider where they compete, which assets they prioritise and how they build resilience. These decisions affect people as much as plants, creating movement across the market as some individuals are forced to move and others choose to explore opportunities with clearer direction, stability or growth potential. 

The changing consolidation landscape 

The recent focus on combinations between major packaging groups shows how actively the sector is being repositioned. Consolidation can create stronger platforms, broader customer reach and improved purchasing power. It can also help companies rationalise capacity and sharpen their exposure to higher-value segments. Yet integration is difficult in a market where customers are procurement-led, local service expectations remain high and many plants have deep regional roots. 

Bain & Company’s packaging and paper outlook has pointed to low profitability, overcapacity and subdued demand as continuing challenges for executives. Mayr-Melnhof, amongst many other leading packaging businesses, has also described difficult market conditions, with soft demand and overcapacity continuing to shape European performance. 

Rising demands on leadership 

Leadership teams are now having to make difficult decisions about assets, costs, customers and capability, often while managing uncertainty across the wider organisation.  

Executives are being asked to simplify operating models, review underperforming assets, protect cash and improve asset utilisation while maintaining customer confidence. They must make decisions quickly, but with enough clarity to avoid unsettling the people needed to deliver the plan. 

The profile of successful packaging leadership is therefore changing. Growth experience still matters, but businesses increasingly need leaders who:  

• Have managed integration, restructuring, divestment or operational turnaround 
• Understand manufacturing economics, customer profitability, procurement discipline and the human consequences of change 
• Can move between boardroom strategy and plant-level execution without losing credibility in either 

A more mobile talent market 

One of the most important talent effects of restructuring is movement. Some people are forced to move because a site, division or role changes. Others choose to move because uncertainty makes them question whether their current employer can offer stability or progression. In both cases, consolidation and overcapacity create a more fluid talent market across EMEA. 

This mobility can be disruptive for companies in transformation. Plant managers, engineering leaders, supply chain specialists, commercial directors and finance leaders often carry the knowledge that makes restructuring achievable. If they leave at the wrong moment, cost-saving plans can slow, customer relationships can weaken and operational performance can suffer. 

It can also create opportunity. Competitors that can offer a clear strategy, credible investment story and visible leadership path may attract experienced people who have already operated through difficult cycles. For organisations looking to upgrade capability, this is a moment to understand where talent may become available and how quickly it can be engaged. 

Securing talent through market disruption 

During uncertain periods, retention cannot rely on loyalty alone. Leaders need clear communication, honest timelines and a compelling explanation of why change is happening. Critical employees also need to see where they fit in the future organisation. Without that clarity, even high performers who are not directly affected may start considering external options. 

Talent mapping becomes essential in this environment, as organisations should know: 

• Which roles are business-critical
• Which individuals are retention priorities 
• Where succession is thin 
• Where external hiring may be required 

This is particularly important in operational leadership, technical sales, procurement, engineering, finance and HR, where practical experience is difficult to replace quickly. 

Margin pressure and commercial discipline 

Margin pressure is also changing what companies need from commercial leaders. In corrugated, cartonboard and paper-based packaging, customers are often rigorous and cost-focused. Commercial teams must defend value, manage pass-through mechanisms, improve customer mix and work closely with operations to avoid promising service or price positions that the business cannot profitably sustain. 

This creates demand for leaders with stronger data capability, sharper pricing discipline and the confidence to make selective choices. In a pressured market, growth is not only about volume. It’s also about understanding which customers, products and sites create sustainable returns. 

The next phase of packaging leadership 

The European packaging sector is unlikely to become simpler in the near term, and regulation, energy costs, customer expectations, sustainability investment and capacity imbalance will continue to test leadership teams. Consolidation may create stronger businesses, but only if they can integrate effectively, retain critical people and make disciplined choices about where to invest. 

For employers, the talent agenda should sit close to the strategic agenda. The companies that understand competitor movements, identify mobile talent and hire leaders with proven transformation experience will be better positioned to navigate the current cycle. 

At Proco Group, we work with organisations across the packaging and paper sector to map talent landscapes, understand competitor movements and secure leaders for critical roles.  

To discuss how consolidation, overcapacity or restructuring may be affecting your organisation’s talent requirements, please get in touch. 

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Mark Giles

Senior Partner | Industrials | EMEA

E: mark.giles@weareprocogroup.com

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